If Trump’s announcement of imposing 25% tariff on steel and aluminium comes true, a major shift will be seen in global trade. These new tariffs will directly impact the world’s largest metal suppliers, including India.

Who will be affected to what extent?

According to Financial Times, these 10 countries will be most affected:

1. Canada ($25.26 billion) – Being the largest steel and aluminium supplier to the US, Canada will suffer the biggest blow. Canadian policymakers could seek exemptions or retaliation against it.
2. China ($13.86 billion) – US-China trade tensions are already escalating, and these new tariffs will only add to the pressure. China could focus on diversifying its exports.
3. Mexico ($13.28 billion) – Mexico’s steel and aluminium sector is deeply connected to the US under the USMCA agreement. Tariffs could increase manufacturing costs.
4. South Korea ($5.71 billion) – The Korean auto industry would be hit hard as steel and aluminium imports would be cheaper for brands like Hyundai and Kia.
5. Brazil ($4.87 billion) – Brazil’s steel and mining sector will be affected by this. The search for new trade alliances may begin.
6. Germany ($4.49 billion) – This could be a major setback for Germany’s engineering and automobile industries. Industrial growth may slow down.
7. Taiwan ($4.38 billion) – Specialty steel and aluminium component exports may be adversely affected. New markets will have to be found.
8. India ($4 billion) – The situation is mixed for India. On the one hand, exports in the US market may slow down, on the other hand, if the US finds alternative suppliers from China and Canada, India may also benefit. India will focus on its trade diversification.
9. Japan ($3.22 billion) – High-tech steel and aluminium products may become more expensive, leading to a drop in demand.
10. Italy ($2.73 billion) – The European Union could also impose counter-tariffs on the US in retaliation, which would further complicate trade relations between the two sides.

What could happen next?

Negotiations & Exemptions: Many countries can seek special exemptions from the US, especially Canada and Mexico, which are part of the USMCA.

Retaliatory Tariffs: Big players like the EU and China can announce counter-measures.

Trade Diversification: Countries like India and Brazil can find new buyers to recover losses.

What will happen to India?

These tariffs will definitely have an impact on India’s steel and aluminium industry, but this can also be an opportunity if the US is forced to find new suppliers. Now it remains to be seen how India takes advantage of this new trade war!